Regional governments, businesses, farmers, and households are being urged to prepare for hotter, drier conditions.
The call comes from UWI’s Climate Studies Group Mona and the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology & Hydrology as concerns grow over the impact of El Niño.
Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, a Climatologist at CIMH, says El Niño conditions are highly likely to persist into the peak of the Caribbean Dry Season, in March 2027.
“The forecast continues to show a broadening area of below-normal rainfall from the Guianas in the south, across the Lesser Antilles, and into the Greater Antilles through at least October. This is expected to be accompanied by a significant increase in the number of days experiencing hot spells. The combined effect of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation rates will likely lead to drought conditions over most of the Windwards, Leeward, and ABC Islands; portions of the Greater Antilles, including parts of Jamaica and Hispaniola; and portions of The Bahamas by October/November 2026. These conditions would likely extend into early 2027 and expand across the Caribbean, with accumulated water deficits and wildfires becoming a greater concern in the early months of 2027,” says a statement from the University.
El Niño is historically linked to severe droughts and also increases the risk of extreme humid heat, wildfires, and marine heatwaves that can trigger coral bleaching.
Reduced rainfall combined with elevated temperatures can also lead to agricultural losses, while water and energy systems may come under strain.
Also, given the region’s reliance on imports, global disruptions associated with El Niño can affect trade, logistics, and the procurement of goods and services.
Governments are therefore being urged to assess risks to supply chains, transportation networks, and key trade routes.
“Principal of the CIMH, Dr David Farrell reiterates the importance of timely, actionable climate information in supporting decision-making across the region, noting that “Proactive measures are vital for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate-sensitive sectors, communities, and national economies.”
