THE election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States comes with speculation and uncertainty.

Let’s cut through the noise and look at what foreign policy will look like under a second Trump term, based on his campaign and previous regime.

Trump will resume his drastic reshaping of foreign policy with China and Mexico via tariffs. This new ‘trade war’ will seek to bring factories and jobs back to the US at the cost of disrupting global supply chains.

Secondly, Trump has promised to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. As much as one should not fully trust the promises of a politician, the President’s first term indicates an ability to end and avoid wars, with him being the first president to not start or escalate any US military conflicts since Gerald Ford. However, while he may be deemed a peaceful president when it comes to military war, his methods are what will be seen as controversial.

The US pulling out of NATO, heightened tensions with the UN, and a borderline reckless antagonism of Iran may likely be on the path to ending these wars under the Trump administration.

Finally, US oil production will expand once again under Trump. ‘Drill baby, drill’ has been Trump’s energy position, and with him assuming the Oval Office on January 21, 2025, the US will return to chasing energy self-sustainability.

The implications of this are that the United States will become a net exporter of oil, which will undoubtedly hurt barrel prices. For Trinidad and Tobago, as we have regular deficit budgets pegged on hopeful oil prices, US exports will damage our revenue generation. Outside of oil, a Trump regime taking office means T&T’s potential dealings with Venezuela regarding Dragon and Loran/Manatee are in definite jeopardy.

Ultimately, Donald Trump is not as unpredictable as many would like you to believe. Additionally, many of his foreign policy decisions may seem unhinged to those outside looking in, but are largely seen as in the best interest of the American people.

Let’s not forget that as we sit thousands of miles away, uncertain of this policy outlook, most Americans, twice now, have resonated with this ‘America First’ platform. These next four years will not be the end of the world, nor will they be a coming of a new golden age. All we are guaranteed is four years of excitement.

Jade-Mark Sonilal Arouca