INDIA, the world’s largest democracy, ended voting for its National Assembly or Lok Sabha for 543 seats on June 1 in the seventh and final phase. There is keen interest among Indo-Trinidadians in the elections as obtained in interviews by this writer. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the ballot for his third term. He is expected to win his seat of Varanasi by a landslide.

Varanasi is home to some of India’s holiest Hindu shrines. Thousands of Hindus from Trinidad visit the city annually, going back for the last 50 years. This writer polled constituents on Modi’s performance. Modi has been the best parliamentary rep of his constituency since elections were first held in the early 1950s. In fact, he has been the best rep of all constituencies over the last decade. Modi is no stranger to Trinidad, having visited twice before he became chief minister of Gujarat (2002 till 2014) for Hindu and Ramayana conferences. He was to revisit Trinidad (and Guyana) in November 2018 following a G-20 summit in Argentina, but the trip was cancelled at the last minute because of the need to rush to Delhi for a political emergency.

This writer has been lobbying for a Modi visit to the Caribbean (Trinidad, Guyana) for a summit with Caribbean leaders. It is hoped that it will happen in 2025 or 2026, if Modi wins re-election. Since Trinidad, Guyana, Suriname hold elections in 2025 with incumbents preoccupied with re-election, a Modi visit is unlikely unless it takes place early 2025. The PM of T&T and other Caricom leaders should invite the Indian PM to strengthen relations with the region. India has been very generous, with all kinds of assistance from health to loans to infrastructure to technology, among other areas.

Will Modi win re-election? Most opinion polls forecast a Modi victory. But the margin of victory is questioned. The incumbent BJP that Modi leads claims it will win 350 seats, and its NDA partners another 50, for a total of 400 of the 543 seats. Polls suggest substantially less. The opposition Congress party says it will win enough seats to form a coalition government with its alliance partners called the INDIA bloc. Some 272 seats are needed to form a government. BJP is likely to get more than that on its own. However, a lower turnout than in 2019 of some 8% has been a cause of concern among political analysts. There are 968 million voters on the roll, with turnout about 62%.

Indian Trinbagonians have been keenly following the election campaign in India and are anxious about the outcome. Most want Modi and the BJP to win another term because of the major transformation of India under his ten-year tenure. Also, Modi has deepened relations with the Caribbean and Latin states, increasing developmental aid and scholarships for studies of Caribbean nations at Indian universities.

Based on multiple visits last year and this year and informal polling with voters in various parts of the country, it is the view of this writer that BJP is projected to win over 300 seats. Several seats are expected to be close, especially in northern constituencies, and can go either way. The opposition has not presented itself as a strong alternative and lacks a likeable, credible leader who could pose a threat to Modi. The BJP is very strong in the north and will get an overwhelming majority of the seats in northern states and a small number of seats in the south where the opposition is very strong.

Unlike Trinidad, a candidate can run for two seats but can only hold one if victorious in both, resigning the other. The de facto opposition leader Rahul Gandhi contested two seats and is likely to win both. Unlike in T&T, voters can reject all the candidates for a seat-none of the above (or NOTA) is an option, and voting is electronic, with ballots cast in machines. The machines in the different polling precincts will be opened on June 4 to reveal the automatic count in each for each candidate, and totalled in each constituency to decide the winner.

Based on polling, Modi should return as PM with Indian Trinidadians and other Indo-Caribbean people eagerly awaiting his visit to the region.

Dr Vishnu Bisram