THE next few years will see the United States plunge into a state of serious social and political turmoil and much greater polarisation as the prospect of Donald Trump returning as US president looms large. The signs can be viewed as sobering and apprehensive.

The current court case against him is not likely to succeed and, in any event, a guilty verdict will further promote his message of martyrdom. The polls in swing states show Trump in the lead and Joe Biden’s electability is beset by a number of issues, including his age, the seemingly intractable border problem, the continuing level of inflation, voter suppression in Republican-controlled states, developments in the Israel/Gaza war, and a lack of enthusiasm in key constituencies.

Trump will not obtain the popular national vote but is most likely to prevail in the Electoral College.

Even if Trump loses, he will not accept the results, and will call upon his more rabid supporters to take up arms in what he will define as ‘the final battle’ for the soul of America, that is, white supremacy. It would take just a few thousand committed, resolute, misguided and fanatical supporters to create mayhem and put the socio-political system under severe stress.

If Trump regains the US presidency, he would have already had most of the judiciary on his side and would also control the Department of Justice. If the Republican party is able to win the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, then he would be in full control of the legislative process and agenda. He has unwavering support in sectors of the media. He has sympathy in large swathes of the police and security apparatus at the state and federal levels. If he is able to enlist the leadership of the army in suppressing domestic dissent, then he can establish a full-fledged autocracy with dictatorial underpinnings and pursue his MAGA agenda unhindered.

He has already indicated that he will engage in full-scale retribution against those he perceives as his enemies. The level of violence experienced in the society will escalate. He will carry out a comprehensive and indiscriminate programme of repatriation of unwanted immigrants, many of whom will be Caribbean nationals. He will exacerbate economic inequalities by, among other things, reducing taxes for the rich, and will overhaul the education and healthcare systems in line with his regressive ideology on social issues.

On the international front, he will pursue both an isolationist policy and one of appeasement of autocratic regimes. Thus, economic and military support for Ukraine will either cease or be restricted, providing Russia with an absolute advantage in its aggression. He will be dismissive of the United Nations and will downgrade America’s ties with NATO. He will be indifferent to China’s aggression against Taiwan and other Pacific countries. He will turn a blind eye to North Korea’s intimidation of and threats against South Korea.

He will become more friendly with the autocratic rulers in the Middle East and elsewhere and consolidate his special relationship with Saudi Arabia. Here in the Caribbean, he is unlikely to intervene in support of Guyana if Venezuela decides on armed invasion of the Essequibo, not being disposed to confront Venezuela’s backers such as Russia and China.

Under Trump, America may no longer be able to strut its claim to be the land of the free, the home of the brave and the welcoming haven of immigrants. Nor can the country be propounded as the greatest democracy in the world and the most successful national enterprise in the history of mankind. His rule may well see the beginning of the process of the disintegration and demise of the country.

Trevor Sudama San Fernando