There is a 75% to 85% probability that a moderately strong El Niño event may develop in November and continue into April 2024.

This is according to the T&T Met Service’s latest El Niño update which says there is a possible weakening of the event after April.

It notes that a moderately strong El Niño event increases the likelihood of El Niño related climate anomalies to occur but does not necessarily equate to stronger impacts locally.

However, historically El Niño conditions tend to produce below-normal rainfall within T&T, but not always.

There is a moderate probability (68%) that the El Niño conditions will likely have a negative influence on local rainfall during the months of November 2023 to January 2024.